Why a 2022 Recession Would Be Unlike Any Other | WSJ

by | Mar 22, 2023 | Invest During Inflation | 36 comments

Why a 2022 Recession Would Be Unlike Any Other | WSJ




Is the U.S. in a recession? Many economists think that’s a possibility and by some measurements, it may have already started. But why aren’t people losing their jobs?

Recessions usually come with a dip in economic output and a rise in unemployment. Right now, economic output is falling. But so is unemployment. WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath has coined it a “jobful downturn.” We look at past recessions and indicators to explain how a recession in 2020 could be very different.

Read more about this “jobful downturn” on The Wall Street Journal:

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The possibility of a recession in 2022 has become a topic of concern among economists and investors worldwide. While past recessions have been driven by factors such as technology bubbles, housing market crashes, and banking crises, a 2022 recession could be unlike any other before it. In this article, we will delve into the reasons why a recession in 2022 would be a unique event, and what could be done to mitigate its effects.

Firstly, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought about unprecedented changes to the global economy. The pandemic has led to massive job losses and business closures, record-breaking government stimulus packages, and a shift to remote work for many industries. The pandemic has also exposed weaknesses in supply chains and supply-demand imbalances in various sectors. Consequently, the uncertainties brought about by the pandemic could lead to a recession in 2022, particularly if new variants of the virus continue to emerge and disrupt economic activities.

See also  Bill Ackman: my latest view on inflation and recessions

Secondly, the labor market has undergone massive shifts in the past year, with millions losing their jobs through no fault of their own. However, there could be a shortage of workers in several key industries, particularly in the healthcare and hospitality sectors. With retirees leaving the workforce and younger workers reluctant to enter these industries, there could be a significant gap in the labor market in the coming years, resulting in wage inflation and reduced economic activity.

Thirdly, the demographic changes over the past decade could have long-lasting effects on the economy. With baby boomers retiring and fewer young workers entering the workforce, there could be a shortage of workers for several years. On the other hand, the aging population could cause a rise in healthcare costs, which would strain government budgets and could lead to budget cuts that further weaken the economy.

In summary, a 2022 recession would be unlike any other in history, as it would be driven by several unprecedented factors such as the COVID-19 pandemic, changes in the labor market, and demographic shifts. To mitigate the effects of a potential recession, policymakers could implement measures such as increasing government spending, investing in infrastructure, and prioritizing industries that have faced the most significant impacts of the pandemic. If done right, policymakers could lay the foundation for sustained growth and prosperity for years to come.

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36 Comments

  1. Taylor Pilato

    Labor shortage is coming with boomers leaving the work force

  2. semajsivraj

    Anyone notice there's still no recession?

  3. Elvis mark

    In light of the present situation, I think I should view a video on "How to survive the current recession." It's a total failure, in fact. I was amazed that some folks were still able to make more than $409k in a short period of time. If that's still the case, could you clarify how?

  4. Gabriel Ribeiro

    With changes in the economy leading to instability in the stock market, I am considering liquidating my $730k portfolio consisting of bonds and stocks. Someone else in the same situation?

  5. Jack Wade

    Using a textbook to describe a recession is exactly what the designers of this inflation want you to do.

  6. liam richard

    The investment you choose isn't right or wrong, just depends on the kind of business person you are or simply the kind of person you are. However, the end game is investing money long term creates wealth every time. Just pick what you like and understand, invest and it will pay off. A lifetime of investing for 5 mil is not hard to accrue.

  7. Margaritas Bunny

    I am aware that continuing to invest during periods of volatility can be a smart way to build wealth. I’ve heard testimonies of people accruing over $250k in this red period. What measures can I take to achieve this?

  8. James Bond

    There is a very good news that we will have a recession. It will help lower the inflation; it is what the federal reserve wants.

  9. Demon Slayer

    Other nations want to back up their currency with something universally recognised as of value, gold. This = common sense.

    The US on the other hand wants to back up their currency with weapons, ra ra USA cheerleading and a fairytale that it never needs to pay off its debts because someone else will. This = immoral filth.

    Moreover the USA knows it can change to fix this but it doesn’t want to. The only outcome is for the USA to continue to sell itself a delusional brand label that it is the greatest nation on earth, it has a laughably strong dollar and hope others will go along with accompanying CGI and special effects.

    As a child believes in Santa Clause…

  10. lindz w

    Wonder why it's so hard to find a job.. guess it depends on what job you are looking for.

  11. paul stuart

    Many people jumped onto AI for economic benefit. Influencers making money on video gossip & opinions, people selling fake training about instant success which has no intrinsic value. You see it on social media constantly. Actress Kathy Burke interviewed a bunch living in luxury, the problem is that social media produces nothing concrete or of any value. People don't want to work & contribute to society anymore.

  12. CJAM

    like there's no immigrate criss3s at this presant time…lol…

  13. CG Von

    I would disagree with the nature and scope of the US Economy recession or financial crisis.

  14. KingDavid

    Every day we have a new problem. It's the new normal. At first we thought it was a crisis, now we know it's a new normal and we have to adapt. 2023 will be a year of severe economic pain all over the nation.. what steps can we take to generate more income during quantitative adjustment?I can't afford my hard-earned $180,000 savings to turn to dust

  15. KG Thompson

    I hear a different story of how the economy is doing from every news outlet I dont know what to believe, exept that we are fqked

  16. Charlotte Martin

    ®To obtain financial freedom, one must either be a business owner, or an Investor. generating passive income, particularly on a weekly and monthly basis that's the key to living a financially stable life. pray that anyone who reads this will be successful in life..!!

  17. Advance to tabletop

    it feels good to see the market in green, but just how long until we actually break even, I’m the average retail trader, DCA-ing, buying and holding on to stocks for eons, but it’s like I’m up 5% today and down 17% the next week, Yes the market is very Darwinian, there’s winners and losers, and it’s looking like I’ve been on a losing streak, while others make huge 6figure gains in the same market. What strategies are these folks using?

  18. Brad

    Luckily, I can live on my investment income.

  19. Davis Sullivan

    forget about the intensity of the recession, how can we survive through it, financially

  20. Don Timberman

    The thing is companies have been understaffed for years and it’s getting worse so if they cut jobs and cut back they’re gonna come back to no longer being understaffed. Aka no jobs lost.

  21. Nathasya Pramudita

    So let me get this staight. Normally you have Recession when GDP is falling and the unemployment is raising, but in 2022, GDP is negative in the past three quarters but unemployment rate is falling to? So it's like the economy in steroid, you pump the money through the economy, so they open more job, but at the same times make the value of dollar currency down, that's why the FED trying to raise interest rates.

    Oh dear god, if only the dollar didn't became International reserve currency. Your method would've been falling in the first try.

  22.  Herman Ramos

    Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate whether or not we’re going into a recession and precisely when it’s going to happen, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every 7week these past 4months according to Bloomberg.

  23. Lucas Cordero

    This recession is likely being triggered externally. For the first time in decades, US is losing its power as a federal currency. They do not have any more economies left to deflate their inflation and lesser dollars than before are being used for oil trade and stock trades. All supporting a theory that we might be looking at new multi-lateral world order.

  24. dactylmedia

    It's Larry Fink's "going direct" plan.

  25. Patricia Martin

    Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.

  26. Mike Fieselman

    your statement at 00:34 is false, as you iterate in 2:52
    Get your words together

  27. Kevin Marten

    To my understanding this just proves how much we need an edge as investors because playing the market like everyone else just isn’t good enough. I've been quite unsure about investing in this current market and at the same time I feel it's the best time to get started on the market, what are your thoughts?

  28. fock fakebuk

    So now it'd delayed to 2023 apparently. Guess what they are gonna say in 2023?

  29. Cross Vinburn

    How to be saved and be right with God for eternal life!
    1-Admit you’re a sinner and be willing to turn from your own self righteousness to God.
    2-Believe onto Jesus Christ,who being the begotten Son of God, died on the cross, was buried and resurrected for the full forgiveness of our sins as a free gift.
    3-Confess onto God,asking to be saved accepting this free gift of salvation,
    to start a new life being born again after being saved from your sins.

    Scripture links below from the King James Bible.

    The romans road to salvation.
    1.Romans 3:10, “As it is written, There is none righteous, no, not one:"
    2.Romans 3:23, “For all have sinned, and come short of the glory of God.”
    3.Romans 5:8, “But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us."
    4.Romans 5:12, “Wherefore, as by one man sin entered into the world, and death by sin; and so death passed upon all men, for all that have sinned:"
    5.Romans 6:23, “For the wages of sin is death; but the gift of God is eternal life through Jesus Christ our Lord.”
    6.Romans 10:9, “That is thou shalt confess with thy mouth the Lord Jesus, and shalt believe in thine heart that God hath raised him from the dead, thou shalt be saved.”
    7.Romans 10:13, “For whosoever shall call upon the name of the Lord shall be saved.

    More scripture.
    John 3:16-17
    16."For God so loved the world, that he gave his only begotten Son, that whosoever believeth in him should not perish, but have everlasting life.”
    17.”For God sent not his Son into the world to condemn the world; but that the world through him might be saved.”

    Romans 5:8-9
    8."But God commendeth his love toward us, in that, while we were yet sinners, Christ died for us.
    9."Much more then, being now justified by his blood, we shall be saved from wrath through him."

    1 Corinthians 15:1-4,
    1."Moreover, brethren, I declare unto you the gospel which I preached unto you, which also ye have received, and wherein ye stand;
    2."By which also ye are saved, if ye keep in memory what I preached unto you, unless ye have believed in vain.”
    3."For I delivered unto you first of all that which I also received, how that Christ died for our sins according to the scriptures;”
    4."And that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the scriptures:”

    Even more Scripture for how people act before the last days.

    1 Timothy 4:1-5
    Now the Spirit speaketh expressly, that in the latter times some shall depart from the faith, giving heed to seducing spirits, and doctrines of devils;"
    2."Speaking lies in hypocrisy; having their conscience seared with a hot iron;”
    3."Forbidding to marry, and commanding to abstain from meats, which God hath created to be received with thanksgiving of them which believe and know the truth..”
    4."For every creature of God is good, and nothing to be refused, if it be received with thanksgiving”
    5."For it is sanctified by the word of God and prayer.”

    2 Timothy 3:1-7
    1."This know also, that in the last days perilous times shall come."
    2."For men shall be lovers of their own selves, covetous, boasters, proud, blasphemers, disobedient to parents, unthankful, unholy,"
    3."Without natural affection, trucebreakers, false accusers, incontinent, fierce, despisers of those that are good,"
    4."Traitors, heady, highminded, lovers of pleasures more than lovers of God;"
    5."Having a form of godliness, but denying the power thereof: from such turn away."
    6."For of this sort are they which creep into houses, and lead captive silly women laden with sins, led away with divers lusts,"
    7."Ever learning, and never able to come to the knowledge of the truth."

  30. Johny Silver

    That's what socialism does to country

  31. Rich Szabo

    I am aware that continuing to invest during periods of volatility can be a smart way to build wealth. I’ve heard testimonies of people accruing over $250k in this red period. What measures can I take to achieve this?

  32. ExclusiveLM

    .Here is the true definition of a Recession specifically for the future. Recession: when the wealthy top 10 percent take more money from the economic pie into their corporate banks or put their profits into other investments without trickle down effects good enough to help the middle class and poor keep up with the cost of living while enjoying tax loops, of shore accounts, and being bailed out by the government whenever they risk peoples life savings in Wall Street without repercussions and buying off politicians to get Deregulation Laws and other laws passed that will favor them. In other words, there is never a true Recession for those that cause Recessions. That never ending greed has destroyed many economies in the history or the world. In the past the greed involved taking over other countries…. Sounds familiar??? Now greed is about amassing as much money and land as possible. That concludes the definition of Recession. Remember people that wherever there is economic congruence, there is no chance for the quote raising of prices on everything in the name of capitalism and salary wages are commiserate with the cost of living.

  33. lawerence miller

    My wife and I did very well in the amount of money that we amassed for retirement. Well over 80% of that money was made because of taking advantage of buying high-end stocks at a deep discount during the Great Recession. 2009 I fired the stockbroker got rid of all mutual funds and bought individual dividend stocks. Be patient don't get scared and do your homework and you can make a killing.

  34. TANUJ AADITYA

    Capital is dead labour which vampire-like lives on sucking living labour and more it lives,more it sucks(Marx)

  35. Atithyan S

    Lay offs are happening stat !

  36. Jack Nathan

    I really feel left aside hearing and seeing several testimonies from people on profits they make from Bitcoin/Forex Investment. Can someone recommend a good expert that trade on my behalf and generate profit for me

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