Why Economists are Abandoning Recession Forecasts & Amazon’s Overhaul of the Grocery Industry

by | Aug 11, 2023 | Recession News | 19 comments




Episode 117: Neal and Toby discuss Bank of America economists scrapping their recession forecast and what it could mean on a larger scale. The guys also get into why Amazon is overhauling their grocery stores and how drug makers are navigating the Adderall and Penicillin shortage. Neal shares his favorite numbers, including statistics that explain why married people are happier. Plus, the billion dollar sports memorabilia business and how NASA lost a space craft almost 13 billion lightyears away.

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Is the Recession Off?! & Amazon’s Grocery Store Overhaul…(read more)


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Why Economists are SCRAPPING Recession Predictions & Amazon’s Grocery Revamp

In recent months, economists have been forced to scrap their recession predictions due to unexpected shifts in the global economic landscape. The COVID-19 pandemic has undoubtedly disrupted the world economy, but its impact has not been uniformly negative as experts had initially anticipated. Additionally, Amazon’s recent revamp of its grocery sector has added another layer of unpredictability to the equation.

At the beginning of 2020, economists were warning of an imminent recession, citing various factors such as trade tensions, slowing growth, and high levels of debt. However, the pandemic threw a curveball that shifted the narrative. Governments worldwide implemented swift and extensive measures to contain the spread of the virus, which, albeit necessary, caused widespread economic shutdowns. Many sectors took a significant hit, with tourism, hospitality, and retail being the most affected.

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Nevertheless, the unique circumstances created unexpected winners. Some industries experienced an unexpected boom due to changes in consumer behavior. E-commerce, for example, saw exponential growth as people turned to online shopping to meet their needs during lockdowns. Companies like Amazon have been at the forefront of this transition, enjoying record sales during the pandemic.

Amazon, already a dominant force in various sectors, including e-commerce, cloud services, and entertainment, recently announced its plan to revamp its grocery business. This move has further confounded economists’ predictions, making it more challenging to gauge the overall trajectory of the economy.

Traditionally, supermarket chains and local grocery stores have followed a brick-and-mortar model. However, Amazon’s announcement to expand its Fresh and Amazon Go services suggests a potential disruption in this sector. The tech giant plans to introduce new stores and make existing ones fully automated, with minimal human interaction. This change could lead to significant job losses and further impact the economy in unexpected ways.

The global pandemic has also altered consumer behavior, accelerating trends that were slowly evolving before the crisis. For instance, the demand for online grocery shopping has skyrocketed as people opt for contactless delivery options. Amazon’s timely revamp is a strategic move to capture and meet this growing demand.

However, economists and analysts are cautious about the implications of Amazon’s expansion. On one hand, it could contribute to the downfall of traditional grocery stores, increasing unemployment rates and exacerbating economic inequality. On the other hand, the tech giant’s investment in the grocery sector could stimulate competition and lead to innovations that benefit consumers in the long run.

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The uncertainties surrounding the global economy and Amazon’s aggressive expansion plans have caused economists to rethink their recession predictions. While some sectors, like hospitality and tourism, are still struggling to recover, others have managed to sail through the crisis relatively unscathed.

As the pandemic continues to evolve, economists will have to stay vigilant and adapt their models accordingly. Traditional indicators may no longer accurately predict economic trends, and they will need to incorporate new factors such as government policies, technological advancements, and shifting consumer behavior.

In conclusion, economists are scrapping recession predictions as the COVID-19 pandemic and unexpected winners, like Amazon, defy expectations. The world economy has proven to be more resilient in some areas than anticipated, while businesses that can adapt to changing consumer needs thrive. Nevertheless, economists must navigate this uncertain landscape and continuously reevaluate their models to gain a better understanding of the current and future economic trends.

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19 Comments

  1. Brendon Hoover

    HEB in texas was awesome but bummer its in Texas

  2. Alex Gomez

    Book Club top idea!

  3. Alan Young

    Let's Ride!

  4. Markanthony Rizzo

    I wait to the end every time just to hear what hair and make up did this time…

  5. DeVerne

    put some real candid photos in that intro.

  6. Alberto Reyes (dayofthetech_error)

    Great episode!! There were 11 times "soft landing" was mentioned in this episode.
    I don't know how the ratio is for the whole episode but I think Neal overestimated the word

  7. taryn b

    CoOp is the spot

  8. JoDrizzly

    Fav local grocery store used to be Coaborns, I always shopped at Walmart because it was very cheap but now I have finally upgraded to a Target Grocery Guy.

  9. JoDrizzly

    I definitely feel like O/D-Line players in football take much more damage than running backs. They are smashing in to 300 lb players every single drive as well as taking hits from running backs who are able to get to speed before they hit them.

  10. JoDrizzly

    I wonder what would happen if America was forced to get off adderal a couple months. I wonder if people would find out that they can actually function without it or if most people would find they really actually need it in order to thrive in society.

  11. Mr. Bennett

    Meijer! My. Childhood screams for Meijer.

  12. JoDrizzly

    It seems that when the Fed says "Recessions coming", YouTube panics & the stonk market goes to the the m00n whereas when the Fed says "No Recesh, Recesh is off" YouTube celebrates and the stonk market tanks to H-E-Double Hockey Sticks.

  13. AnnA Zimmerman

    You guys heard about the lone robot on Mars singing happy birthday to itself, right? Got my housemate totally choked up. Not me though. Nope. Not at all.

  14. Patty Pae

    Favorite grocery store: Wegmans hand down..the ultimate chocolate cake rocks!!

  15. Crizzy

    Kroger > Walmart ‼️‼️

  16. Aaron Simons

    Gotta give shoutouts to Market Basket and BJ's, my Massachusetts favorites! I do enjoy Publix when I am in FL.

  17. Scott Rosales

    You guys always make my drive to work so much easier.

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