Charlie Bobrinskoy, Ariel Investments vice chairman and head of investment group, joins ‘The Exchange’ to discuss a potential rebound in cyclical stocks, equities climbing following CPI data, and recessionary concerns impacting commodity demand. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:
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BREAKING: Recession News
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The global economy is always subject to fluctuations, with periods of growth and recession being part of the natural economic cycle. As such, it is important for investors and analysts to assess the likelihood of an imminent recession. In this regard, Charlie Bobrinskoy, Vice Chairman at Ariel Investments, recently stated that the odds of a recession are less than 50/50. Let’s delve deeper into his reasoning and understand the factors influencing his perspective.
Bobrinskoy’s analysis suggests that several aspects of the current economic landscape provide room for cautious optimism. To begin with, he highlights the Federal Reserve’s ability to manage interest rates as a significant influence on the likelihood of a recession. The central bank has utilized monetary policy tools to maintain steady economic growth, striking a balance between controlling inflation and stimulating investment. Bobrinskoy’s optimism stems from the Federal Reserve’s successful implementation of these measures, emphasizing the crucial role it plays in stabilizing the economy.
Another factor that Bobrinskoy points to is the current state of employment and wages. Record low unemployment rates coupled with consistent wage growth indicate a strong labor market. Higher employment rates enhance consumer spending, which, in turn, fuels economic growth. Bobrinskoy’s optimism lies in the belief that stable labor conditions will continue to drive economic expansion and buffer against a recession.
Furthermore, Bobrinskoy acknowledges the potential risks associated with a global economic slowdown. While acknowledging these risks, he asserts that they are not enough to outweigh the positive indicators at play. Although there may be global challenges such as trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties, or potential downturns in certain industries, he remains confident in the resilience of the overall economy.
Additionally, Bobrinskoy points to the US housing market as a vital component in assessing the likelihood of a recession. Housing prices have been steadily rising, signaling robust demand and an optimistic outlook for the real estate sector. A strong housing market typically translates to higher consumer confidence and increased investment, both of which support a healthy economy.
While Charlie Bobrinskoy is optimistic about the odds of a recession, it is essential to recognize that economic forecasting is complex and subject to various factors. Economic indicators and risks must be closely monitored, and this analysis should be viewed as one perspective among many. Nevertheless, Bobrinskoy’s view carries weight due to his expertise and experience in investment management.
As investors and analysts navigate the ever-evolving economic landscape, it is crucial to consider multiple perspectives. Ultimately, the likelihood of a recession is contingent upon various economic factors, and it is vital to stay informed and adapt investment strategies accordingly.
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This Russia-Ukraine war cause a cost of living crisis. War is not free. It’s costs money. It can affect everyone globally. Costs will remain up til that war ends.
He is right on some, inflation has gone down, you stay the economy is still strong. I see things slowing down due to the rate hikes. Inflation is stubborn. Since the pandemic, more people are now working from home. People are choosing cheaper things to support their families and save money. I believe inflation will come down more but prices will remain high. The pandemic change how the way we adapt.
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Interesting , a number of the most eminent market experts have been expressing their views on the severity of the impending economic downturn and the extent to which equities might plummet. This is because the economy is heading towards a recession and inflation is persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As I'm aiming to create a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before I turn 60, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments.
Less than 50 right now but not in a few in December-march
"The odds of a recession are less than 50/50…"" Perhaps that's because the Fed will pause raising interest rates and inflation will remain far above the 2% goal. Inflations will not be defeated until general demand in the economy is reduced which has not happened yet.
"Stick with low-cost index funds and you'll be just fine long-term."
— Warren Buffett
why hasnt this channel been banned from youtube? the lies are wall 2 wall isles to isles here there is a reason almost 300 people have viewed this and havent left 1 comment yet