David Doyle, head of economics at Macquarie Group, joins BNN Bloomberg to talk about what he thinks the Federal Reserve will do next as the economy veers toward recession in the third quarter.
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According to David Doyle, an economist at Macquarie, both the United States and Canada are headed towards a recession in the third quarter. This prediction, if it turns out to be accurate, will have significant implications for the economies of both nations and could potentially affect the global economic landscape.
Doyle’s forecast is based on several factors. One of the key factors is the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, which has caused considerable disruptions to businesses and financial markets worldwide. Both the US and Canada have been grappling with the impact of the virus, with lockdowns and restrictions leading to major economic contractions.
Another significant factor contributing to the predicted recession is the slowdown in consumer spending. As businesses shut down and unemployment rates soar, people have less money to spend, resulting in a decrease in consumption. This, in turn, affects the overall economic growth of the countries.
Furthermore, global trade has been severely disrupted due to the pandemic, and both countries rely heavily on international trade for their economic well-being. The imposition of tariffs and restrictions, coupled with reduced demand for goods and services, has had a detrimental effect on trade between the US and Canada, leading to a decline in economic activity.
However, it’s important to note that these predictions are not set in stone and are subject to change. The trajectory of the pandemic, along with government policies and stimulus measures, will play a crucial role in determining the actual outcome. The US and Canadian governments have already implemented various fiscal and monetary measures to support their economies and mitigate the impact of the pandemic.
It is worth mentioning that the definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. While it is possible that the US and Canada will witness negative growth in the third quarter, it remains uncertain whether there will be a consecutive decline in the following quarter.
Nevertheless, if Doyle’s prediction comes to fruition, it would have profound implications for businesses, workers, and the overall economy. Governments would be forced to implement further stimulus measures to jumpstart economic growth and prevent a prolonged downturn.
In conclusion, the prediction of a recession in the third quarter by Macquarie’s David Doyle for both the United States and Canada highlights the persistent economic challenges posed by the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Whether this forecast becomes a reality or not, it is evident that both nations need to take decisive actions to address the economic downturn and ensure a robust recovery.
Thanks for the incorrect prediction
Increasing interest rates will probably result in an increase in bank failures as their treasuries and commercial paper lose value. An interest rate freeze must be put in place to stop a serious economic downturn. In order to reduce fuel prices, the White House should also aid the industry in increasing petrol and oil output. The anti-oil stance just drives up energy prices, which causes inflation across the economy. The economy will prosper and inflation will decline if interest rates are lowered, the money supply is constrained, government spending is decreased, and more affordable fuel is made available. Unfortunately, a number of competing agendas make it unlikely that all of these steps will be put into action, which will cause a recession and ongoing inflation.
Two things…who isn't an economist…even the buffoon steven harper was smart enough to be an economist…and when has Bloomberg ever been right? Ever?
Since 2014 Canada inflation is flying up and 2023 lower class is broke. Inflation is top and wages are on the ground
Shaddup. Nobody can predict this shit.
Some economists have projected that both the U.S. and parts of Europe could slip into a recession for a portion of 2023. A global recession, defined as a contraction in annual global per capita income, is more rare because China and emerging markets often grow faster than more developed economies. Essentially the world economy is considered to be in recession if economic growth falls behind population growth.
God is coming be ready all ok Central out
Good thanks Bloomberg Central out
Great video! For 2023, it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the Stock market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from Stocks to homes.
We are a wealthy country how have we not come up with a better system
Notice how the biggest negative impact on people, that being the labour market, isn't even mentioned. Fucking disgusting.
Los precios propuestos son falsos
The Us is already in a recession…. The current administration just made an attempt to change the definition and not call it that… they are also tackling their over printing of money which has caused inflation, by giving billions of that printed money away to Ukraine and now Taiwan…this in hopes to reduce the amount of money that is in circulation until the goods and supply reach back to normal operating level… this process will talk about three years. The US will need to start taping into its oil reserves and Start selling more natural gas to other countries in order to bring it self back up… more money will be given to Taiwan and Ukraine in addition to what’s already happening.
Roughly £80k in my portfolio are in tech/TSLA stocks, can I get an advice on any other stocks that I can acquire to diversify my reserve across multiple markets while creating a comprehensive portfolio allocation that balances my concerns of risk aversion and returns that meet yearly inflation.
Weird because pretty sure we began a recession summer 2022, no?
We are already in a recession, they just changed the definition so it looks like we are not in one.
Already in recession
This recession is most likely the effect of an external source. For the first time in decades, the United States is losing its clout as a government reserve currency. They don't have any more economies to use to control inflation, and less money is being spent on stock and oil trading than in the past. They all lend credence to the notion that a new multilateral world order is in the works.
I wouldn't bet on it. If president Biden can create fabulous job numbers in April, only to revise them down in May, what do you think he is gonna do with GDP growth?
UK can post GDP growth with 15% inflation raging. Biden can easily do the same.
Morgancanada ,arlago
Funny how we’ve been experiencing “inflation “ while corporations have been experiencing record profits.