On today’s episode of On The Margin, Mike McGlone Senior Macro Strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence joins the show for a discussion on the looming debt ceiling, why deflation (not inflation) is ahead and his outlook for both commodities & hard asset’s, such as Gold & Bitcoin.
Expecting a recession in 2023, Mike walks through the global slowdown taking place, and shares insights into how the commodity markets are signalling declining liquidity & recessionary headwinds. To hear all this and more, you’ll have to tune in!
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Referenced In The Show:
Sohn 2023 | Kiril Sokoloff in conversation with Stanley Druckenmiller:
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:17 The Debt Ceiling Looms, What Next?
05:41 We Are Heading Towards Deflation
09:30 Mike’s Outlook On Markets
14:28 Have Higher Interest Rates Been Felt Yet?
19:11 Research Ad
20:00 The Gold Bull Market Is Here
23:49 Is De-Dollarization Real?
30:18 Why Are Hedge Funds Record Short Treasury Bonds?
32:09 Deflation Deflation Deflation… “We’re All Turning Japanese”
35:48 Permissionless II Ad
36:36 Is There A Structural Case For Inflation?
45:00 Mike’s Macro Framework
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on On The Margin should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets….(read more)
BREAKING: Recession News
LEARN MORE ABOUT: Bank Failures
REVEALED: Best Investment During Inflation
HOW TO INVEST IN GOLD: Gold IRA Investing
A Recession Is Unavoidable | Mike McGlone
The world economy is teetering on the edge of a recession, and according to Mike McGlone, it is an unavoidable event that we must prepare ourselves for. McGlone, a renowned financial analyst, has raised concerns about the global economic outlook and believes that a recession is imminent.
McGlone points out several indicators that suggest an economic downturn is inevitable. One of the main factors he highlights is the inversion of the yield curve, which historically has preceded every recession. This occurs when long-term interest rates fall below short-term rates, and is often considered a sign of anticipatory economic troubles.
Another warning sign that McGlone emphasizes is the global manufacturing slowdown. Many economies heavily rely on their manufacturing sectors, and a decrease in activity can have far-reaching ripple effects. Slowing growth in major manufacturing hubs like China and Germany is evidence that a recession is nearing.
Furthermore, the ongoing trade tensions between the United States and China are exacerbating the situation. These disputes have led to increased tariffs and disrupted global supply chains, impacting businesses and consumers worldwide. McGlone argues that the trade war has created a negative feedback loop, further dampening economic growth.
McGlone also highlights the excessive monetary stimulus as a contributing factor to the impending recession. Central banks around the world have been cutting interest rates and implementing other expansionary policies to stimulate their economies. However, these measures are becoming less effective over time and are causing concerns about a potential economic bubble.
In light of these indicators, McGlone urges individuals and businesses to take proactive steps to prepare for the coming recession. He advises diversifying investment portfolios, reducing debt, and increasing liquidity to navigate the challenging economic environment. Additionally, he calls on governments to implement fiscal policies that support economic growth and stability.
While McGlone’s predictions may be alarming, it is essential to recognize that economic forecasts are not infallible. The timing and severity of a recession can be influenced by various factors, including government policies and external shocks. However, it is crucial to be aware of the warning signs and take necessary precautions to mitigate potential risks.
In summary, Mike McGlone’s analysis of the global economy suggests that a recession is inevitable. The inversion of the yield curve, the global manufacturing slowdown, ongoing trade tensions, and excessive monetary stimulus are all contributing factors. Taking proactive measures such as diversifying investments and reducing debt can help individuals and businesses weather the storm. Whether or not a recession occurs exactly as predicted, being prepared for economic downturns is always a wise strategy.
Understanding personal finances and investing will most likely lead to greater financial independence. By being knowledgeable about money and investing, individuals can make informed decisions about how to save, spend, and invest their money. A trader made over $350k in this recession influenced market.
This is financial advice and I never give financial advice: DONT LEAVE DURING THE BEAR. If you don’t want to invest…learn. If you don’t want to learn…build. If you don’t want to build observe. DO SOMETHING…other than leave. There is so much opportunity here. Take advantage!
The financial system has been artificially pumped for over a decade to ensure big pockets were lined; and now those same hands will make a fortune in the largest transfer of wealth in human history by shorting it on the way down. Inflation does have a roll, but that's to keep everyone panicked, and focused on their bills and expenses, rather than focus on the capital crimes of politicians and corporations,I'm still at a crossroads deciding if to liquidate my $338k stock portfolio, what’s the best way to take advantage of this bear market??
Stocks going up like crazy and these nut jobs saying liquidity is drying up.
America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..
We’ve been in Recession since July 2022 – 2QTRs Consecutive Negative Growth. Why allow this Administration to gaslight? Cowards, Liars or Fools take your pick.
Bitcoin is not an alternative. There is no regulation around it and it's going to get squeezed out for all except the hardcore rich and devout who hold onto it.
Most likely, an outside factor caused this recession. The US dollar's influence as a government reserve currency is waning for the first time in decades. The ability to control inflation is no longer possible, and less money is being spent on oil and stock trading than in the past. They all lend credence to the notion that a new multilateral international order is being developed.
You cannot cut your way out of recession you've got to invest your way out of recession, the Conservative party are in the dark ages on policy they've got to think again. My primary concern is how to maximize my savings/retirement fund of about £170k which has been sitting duck since forever with zero to no gains.
Havent we had consecutive quarters of negative gdp already so hasn't the recession already happened
Agreed >__< Two boring old men
Several of the biggest market experts have been voicing their opinions on exactly how awful they think the next downturn would be, and how far equities may have to go, as recession draws closer and inflation continues well above the Fed's 2% objective. I'm trying to build a portfolio of at least $850k by the time I'm 60, therefore I need suggestions on what investments to make.
There’s more and more of a concern that incoming data is revealing that the Fed might be a little bit behind the curve than maybe they expected heading into this year,” said Bipan Rai, North America head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets. In my portfoliio, I'm noticing more red than green. How are other people in this market raking in over $350k gains within months
May want to interview the brothers at ITR ECONOMICS as the only Economists that actually work with Industrial clients. Thus real data plus future forecasts
Hmmm, there are government entitlement programs, but it doesn't apply to Social Security and Medicare for those of us who worked 46 years and paid those taxes for all those years.
Recession is often the result of external factors, and it appears that the United States is losing its grip as a federal reserve currency. With a decreasing ability to control inflation and a reduction in stock and oil trading, it seems that a new multilateral world order is on the horizon.
I would say TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECISSION! Recessions are an unavoidable part of the economic cycle; all you can do is prepare for them and plan accordingly. I graduated into a slump (2009). My first job after graduating from college was as an aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today, I work as a VP for a global corporation, own three rental properties, invest in stocks and businesses, run my own company, and have increased my net worth by $500k in the last four years.
Deflation would be the nail in the coffin, and would strip everyone under the top 90% of all their assets! It seems to me, like it could be a goal, cos it would just fit in so perfectly for owning nothing!
Brooo. I like this a lot
lol our country can't agree on anything right now but we all agree that the 2024 election is going suck.