Tiffany Wilding, PIMCO managing director, joins ‘Squawk on the Street’ to discuss her call for a recession and the Fed’s next move. For access to live and exclusive video from CNBC subscribe to CNBC PRO:
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Recession Could Still Hit U.S. Economy in Second-Half of 2023, Says PIMCO’s Tiffany Wilding
As the U.S. economy enjoys a period of growth and recovery following the devastating effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, experts are now starting to speculate on the likelihood of a potential recession in the near future. One such expert, Tiffany Wilding of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO), has recently shared her concerns, predicting a recession in the second half of 2023.
Wilding, the North American economist at PIMCO, warns that there are several factors that could contribute to an economic downturn in the coming years. While the current economic conditions remain favorable, with strong GDP growth and declining unemployment rates, Wilding believes that certain headwinds could potentially disrupt this positive trajectory.
One of the major concerns pointed out by Wilding is the potential impact of tighter monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. The central bank’s current accommodative stance has played a significant role in stimulating economic recovery. However, as inflationary pressures continue to rise, the Federal Reserve may be compelled to implement tighter policies, such as raising interest rates or tapering its bond-buying program. These measures could potentially slow down economic growth and increase the risk of a recession.
Another factor that Wilding highlights is the potential for fiscal policy to shift away from stimulus measures. The U.S. government has implemented massive fiscal stimulus packages to combat the economic fallout from the pandemic. While these measures have undoubtedly supported the recovery, Wilding suggests that a shift towards fiscal austerity or reduced government spending could create headwinds for the economy.
Additionally, the ongoing global supply chain disruptions and labor shortages are also contributors to the potential recession risks. Wilding explains that these persistent disruptions have resulted in higher inflation, increased production costs, and limited consumer access to goods and services. Such disruptions, if not properly addressed, could dampen economic growth and worsen the likelihood of a recession.
It is important to note that Wilding’s prediction is speculative, and the U.S. economy’s future remains uncertain. Many other economists have differing views on the likelihood of a recession in the second half of 2023. However, her insights offer valuable food for thought and emphasize the need for continued vigilance and preparedness.
To mitigate the potential risks highlighted by Wilding, policymakers and businesses must remain proactive. The Federal Reserve should carefully plan its monetary policy actions to balance inflationary concerns while avoiding drastic measures that could harm economic growth. Additionally, fiscal policy should be flexible and responsive, ensuring that support is provided where necessary, while also addressing long-term sustainability.
Businesses should focus on building resilience by diversifying supply chains, addressing labor shortages through innovative measures and investments, and adopting technology to boost productivity. These efforts can help mitigate the disruptions caused by global events and ensure a smoother transition through any potential downturn.
While it is crucial to stay vigilant and prepare for potential future challenges, it is equally important not to neglect the positive momentum the U.S. economy has gained. The successful vaccination campaigns, increasing consumer spending, and strong business investment all contribute to the current growth trajectory. By acknowledging the potential risks and working to address them proactively, the U.S. economy can continue to recover and flourish even in the face of uncertainty.
We are in a recession right now
The reason for the economic recession in America is the Emirates. America must take measures against the Emirates
The system was used against us little people, truth be told. Billionaire frauds, tech giants, and an ever-inflating housing market in an economy where people can't afford anything. Combine that with over a 100 million in poverty including elderly, mental health patients, veterans, families, kids… all the result of a deregulated free market.
These people have Ben talking of a recession since the beginning of the pandemic. I swear this is too keep people in a state of fear. I don’t believe any of these people. Just turn off your TV go outside and distract yourself
"you need some unempolyment…" let her have some then, see how she smiles then.
The Americans hurt now said it weren't important then.
Instead of trying to predict whether or not we’re going into more recession and keep losing your money, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 150K every quarter according to Bloomberg.
Inflation gonna hit utilities and consumer goods
To speak of the “economy” as a monolithic thing is misleading. We have a bifurcated economy. Large corporations and their investors (i.e. rich people) are doing well. The vast middleclass, low-income workers, and small businesses have been struggling for over two years. For them, the recession is old news; they are in midst of one. Pundits agree that in late 2023 the US will feel the effects of the recession – meaning consumers will finally be too poor to buy much beyond the bare necessities, and some cannot afford even that. But as always, the effects of government-caused inflation and constraints on real competition are hitting the “have nots” while the “haves” are in hog heaven.
https://youtu.be/F94jGTWNWsA
Recession and Inflation have more immediate effects on people's level of living than a crash in the stock or real estate markets. It should come as no surprise that the market is currently so pessimistic. We must receive help immediately if we are to survive in this economy. Like the housing market, the ETF and stock markets continue to be highly volatile. My $370K portfolio is now nothing but ruins.
it's extremely frustrating that things have not crashed. the government is so criminal and somehow propping things up. we need massive layoffs and crash in autos, housings, and food. 10% unemployment should have already been here.
We don’t have immigration? 2 million+ people arrived to the US in 2022! At that rate our population will double in my lifetime. Millennials are hopping boomers retire and move so they can take boomer jobs and housing but for every one boomer job or home that comes available there are 20+ immigrants competing with them for that job or home.
It’s insane you can’t have intelligent conversations in comments because of all the investment comment bots.
Interesting , a number of the most eminent market experts have been expressing their views on the severity of the impending economic downturn and the extent to which equities might plummet. This is because the economy is heading towards a recession and inflation is persistently above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. As I'm aiming to create a portfolio worth no less than $850,000 before I turn 60, I would appreciate any advice on potential investments.
No I don’t think so maybe cut your hours as that’s evolving cut top branches first
Recession fears mount on Wall Street and inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, some of the top commentators in markets, business, and economics have been sounding off on just how bad they think the next downturn might be — and how far stocks may have to fall. I need ideas and advice on what investments to make to set myself up for retirement, my goal is to have a portfolio of at least $850k at the age of 60.
These people always use the terms like: might, could, possibly, likely, probably, etc. That indicates that they don't know anything. In other words, they are just soothsayers.
Let's go BRANDON and FJB
You guys keep trying to sell this